i think he has some rate traits. he is a family man, so that's why. >> it's the personal resume again. >> dan, given what biden has allowed to happen to this country just in the last three years, it is devastating. will iowa choose the ultimate winner of the gop primary race this year? >> if you are looking at the polls, i would say probably sell. >> okay. you had an answer. i can't wait to hear what you do. dan and cindy, great to see both of you. that's it for us. stay with fox all night long for live coverage of the iowa caucuses especially if you want to see me later on tonight. follow me on social media. it is america now and forever. jesse is next.

it is 8:00 p.m. in new york, 7:00 in iowa for the caucuses where have just been called to order. the 2024 election is officially underway. after a prayer and the pledge of allegiance iowa caucus goers from all 99 counties will hear from representatives of each campaign. ones each representative is heard, you write your preferred candidates name on a piece of paper, put it in a basket and the whole basket is counted in front of everybody. this is about as basic as it gets and that's a good thing. no machines. no harvesting. no drop boxes. those results will come trickling in in any second. we will know the winner tonight. imagine that. early reports indicate that donald trump is performing incredibly well. so sit back and watch because this is actually fun. would you leave your house at night when his 20 below zero, drive across the frozen tundra

to politic inside a high school gymnasium? thousands of americans in iowa are. these are the diehards. they've got a final peptalk this weekend. >> you can't sit home. if you are sick as a dog you say even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it. >> you will join with me in this movement. you will join with me and caucus. i promise you our best days are yet to come. >> can you handle the windchill? can you go out and caucus for me? i will be fighting for you for the next eight years as the next president of the united states. >> they are selling us the rope today that they will use to hang us tomorrow. yes, i am asking for your vote tomorrow night. >> just like in life, nothing comes for free. republican spending around $100 million in iowa. nikki haley and ron desantis both spending over 30 million bucks. donald trump spending about

$20 million and vivek ramaswamy just a couple million. after all that cash as we stand now donald trump is walking into tonight with a commanding 30 to 40-point lead. tonight is a race for second place with desantis and haley nearly tied in the mid-deems. transacts bringing up the rear. iowans believe in one thing. they want radical change in washington. record migration, crime and inflation have taken the american people to the breaking point. the state of the unionism not strong. the oldest president of all time is also the most unpopular president in modern american history. this despite the media doing everything it can to suppress negativity aimed at it. just this weekend americans crawled out of every corner of the country and violently surrounded the white house, hurling objects and rattling the gaetz. of course no arrests were made. there never are. and of course president biden

wasn't there. he never is. he was secluded at camp david. but tonight is not a night for mobs. when americans unite under the banner of democracy, we are more powerful than any force in human history. if enough of us get behind one man, we change the nation. if it's a landslide we will know that night. we decide our future. we choose our fate. joe biden and the politicians work for us. it's not his house. it is the people's house. we pay their salaries so we are in charge. and this evening the hiring and firing begins. for donald trump a big quick win tonight asserts dominance. it creates an air of invisibility and inevitability that workforces primary opponents to consider dropping out earlier than planned and coalescing around him and sparing the party an expensive, dragged out primary. so the gop is fresh and united when it faces off against biden.

for ron desantis, it is second place or bust. the governor has almost lived in iowa. he's been to every county, spent a lot of money and secured big endorsements. this is his first test to. for nikki haley, a second place would rocket her to new hampshire where she is polling well. the last full in iowa shows her with momentum but a chunk of her supporters are democrats and she doesn't jive with the populist wing of the party. for vivek ramaswamy, a political virgin, can he punch above his weight? he's attracted to the young maga wing of the party but could run out of money sooner than any of his rivals. whatever happens tonight, the future of the united states will be determined by the future of the republican party. can the republican party get it together and come together? because biden and the establishment, let's just say after the last two elections, we know what they are capable of. american patriots need to be

working together enthusiastically, clear eyed and at full capacity. anything less than that, this country continues its dangerous and corrupt slide into darkness. not the america i know and love. i was always shown those who believe prosper. energy always wins the caucus. and donald trump is heading into tonight with 80% of caucus goers saying they are extremely or very enthusiastic. desantis, 62%. nikki haley, less than 40%. so whatever happens tonight, get excited. because the united states of america is ready to get back to its roots and that is what makes us great. let's bring in brett baier anchor of special report. martha maccallum, anchor of the story. any news yet, guys? >> good evening. as you mentioned at the top at 8:00 p.m. eastern time the doors are starting to close. we can characterize who is in

the room. former president donald trump has a commanding lead according to our fox news voter analysis as the doors are closing in all of the republican caucus meetings. he has this deep bond with gop voters in iowa and particularly rural iowa voters. >> indeed. governor ron desantis as you were just talking about and former governor nikki haley, very tight race between the two of them for second place right now. desantis obviously made a big push for evangelical christians. so far what we are seeing is that his support with that group is only slightly greater than with nonevangelicals. there are certain sections of the state that we will look at closely to see how he is performing with those evangelical voters in particular. meanwhile haley's base appears to be more urban around the college areas and she is caring about 4 in 10 voters who consider themselves to be, quote, "non-maga. 2 vivek ramaswamy is running

further behind and now. we don't need know the exact numbers as we look at the caucus sites. a lot happens in the room. we are getting a sense of what the voters look like who are attending the caucuses all around the state. >> looking at some of these internal early numbers as you guys have, is there anything that surprises you? >> i think the push by governor desantis for evangelical voters has not panned out. i think 6 in 10 are going towards the former president. his bond as i said at the beginning with the rural voters. there are 48 of 99 counties here that have fewer than 15000 people. of those, we are seeing a really huge turnout in those smaller places for the former president. >> we are hearing from a number of sources that turn out looks very good, jesse. this is something we anticipated watching people get out and about. they are not intimidated by a little bit of cold weather. i think you are seeing the caucus places very energized.

people are very fired up and they do seem to be strongly supporting the former president. he will be watching all these numbers as they come in. so far it looks like a very good night for him. in terms of nikki haley, she clearly resonates with basically urban and suburban women. also she is resonating with people who want another alternative other than the former president. desantis and the former president appeared to be overlapping in that lane where the president seems to be doing well. >> a big raise for second place. we will see you throughout the hour. thank you very much. >> what should we expect tonight? how does the caucus process actually work? let's bring in bill hemmer coanchor of america's newsroom. >> it's a bit of a throwback, isn't it? a throwback to all of this. let's see here. jesse, i am getting word anecdotally that in bettendorf,

iowa which is in along the mississippi river at one caucus site they are saying there is a line of cars a mile long. the parking lot is full. this is one sided. we will keep an eye on it. watching the twitter feed, president trump is on the move. he will go to a caucus site in all likelihood where we are in the morning in polk county. we will see where he ends up momentarily. let me get you back so i can show you something. this is really our best comparison. this is 2016. i know it was eight years ago. there were 10 candidates in that race 10 years ago. ted cruz was the winner by three points over donald trump and marco rubio came in a close third at 23%. where did rubio do well? that's an easy story to explain to the viewers. here in polk county in des moines they did well to the west and in dallas county rubio was the winter there as well. it's nikki haley targeting in

the caucus. also out here in johnson county, the university of iowa. college-educated suburban. that is haley's target zone. we will see if she hits that tonight. i mention scott county and that is where bettendorf is. also davenport as it cuts its way to the eastern edge of iowa. marco rubio did well there also. let's go back and look at all this. rubio was doing well in counties that tend to be larger. easily the top 10 towns in all of iowa rubio did well. but ted cruz and donald trump split it up really well. look up in the northwestern part of the state. a lot of people have talked about this. these four counties don't have a ton of books, but they are evangelical. all four of them has voted as a block for the winner going back to 2008, mike huckabee.

a truly remarkable record for this squad of here in the corner. what is donald trump going to do? eight years ago evangelical voters in places like iowa were skeptical. now they've got a record. he's got a record he can run on. if you talk to people in iowa they talk about the supreme court appointments, the decision of roe v. wade, et cetera. some of them we talked to believe that he has won them over. we will see how he does that. he is competing against ron desantis and a lot of these places. i made this point and it's worth repeating. it's really hard to find a state in america that has gone from blue to red from barack obama in 2012 to donald trump in 2016. the way iowa has done. in one specific county along the minnesota border, this is the county of howard. donald trump was a winner by about six votes. not a ton right there. just about 1.6 percentage

points. why am i bringing this up? no county in iowa on all 99 counties, no county in the state, no county in the country has swung more from barack obama to donald trump than howard county. it was plus 21 obama. it was plus 26 donald trump. that's a huge swing for just one area of the country here. we will see how they go tonight and break it down. this border down here with missouri as well. ted cruz, that's a lot when they talk about ted cruz and going after the evangelical voter. you should have seen the caucus site eight years ago. he had families from texas and florida working the phones and trying to drive people out. a lot of what we saw at trump headquarters earlier today over in wayne county. ted cruz strong there as well. then i would say as you take all

this in, think about the 10 counties at the border and the eastern edge along the mississippi river. here there. trump won all of them with the exception of scott county. when they went to the general election hillary clinton beat him and scott county as well. this is the break down. let me just pop by one second and take this off and take it to realtime. hang with me. here's the deal. trump in red, haley orange, desantis in blue. let me change the screen one time. vivek ramaswamy in green. all these colors will come in very soon in the next hour. but nothing at the moment. when that changes you will be the first do no. >> if your anecdote is to be believed, we have counties going from blue to deep red and now at 20 below zero they are waiting in their cars a mile outside of

caucus sites? what does that tell you? >> i am not sure yet. i just want to couch that. it was anecdotal. it was one location, one place. maybe it's happening everywhere but we can't be certain just yet that that is the case. 1700 caucus sites. desantis said he had a great ground game. trump said he had a great ground game. we will find out who is right very soon. >> we know you have a very good baby feeding game. we saw you feeding a baby on an airplane. not your baby. that is what we call midwest nice. she needed help and i was glad to be of assistance. the plane could get off the ground. >> you are a good man. see you soon. >> iowa is a red state now through and through. they are proud people leading the way in agricultural innovation. farms grow more corn, produce more eggs than any state in the nation. joe biden is wrecking their

livelihoods. just last year production cost for farmers surged $15 billion. joe's economy is only making things worse. it's not just bidenomics killing crops. immigration has voters on edge. turns out 3.2 million new residents who can't speak english worry small-town america. here is how it all impacts tonight's vote. the coanchor of america reports, sandra. while we await official word at this hour on the caucus outcome, i've got some great fox news voter analysis for you that none of our viewers have heard so far. despite the cold out there, some are attending their first caucus ever. this is a key group that we have been watching. one quarter are first-timers here in iowa. that's a really big development to watch. they came out and braved the cold. who did they come out to support? among first-time caucus voters, trump, not someone new, was the big motivator.

more than half came out to support him. haley got less than half that and next up we will find out how trump's legal issues are playing out in iowa. they do not appear to be a big problem regarding the classified documents found in his home in florida. 4 in 10 that he did nothing wrong having those documents and another third think it may have been unethical, but not illegal. what about his alleged interference in the 2020 presidential vote? not a problem to half of voters and another quarter agree he did nothing illegal. looking at trump's role in what happened at the capitol on january 6th, 2021. something else we were watching heading into iowa. more than half of iowa republican voters say nothing wrong with his actions on that day. caucus goers did however say they want to see change.

almost all the respondents say they want at least substantial change in the way thanks are done in this country with one third favoring complete and total upheaval. that is a lot to think about. that is brand-new data for you tonight. i will have much more later on with our fox news election special at 10:00 p.m. eastern time. >> total upheaval? i guess we will have to interpret what that means. did icu show that over 50% of trump caucus goers were first-timers? if that is true, that is an amazing amount of new activists that he has brought off the ground. >> among the first time caucus goers, 52% showings% for trump. 52% for haley, 11% for vivek ramaswamy and tied with ron desantis. >> we will check in with you later. thank you very much. we have a guy over at each campaign headquarters.

let's check in with rich edson over at trump hq in des moines. >> good evening, jesse. the former president is heading to a campaign holding site, a caucus site before coming back to des moines to his watch party. the question has always been how much could the former president possibly win by? campaign aides are trying to tamp down expectations. they are saying we get out of here with a win and we will be happy with a win. look at the polling that has gone in across the country. he is up by more than 50%. some polls showing nationwide. there are major expectations surrounding the trump campaign as we are finally now voting in the 2024 cycle. the former president spent the day calling caucus captains and was trying to get supporters out to the polls and trying to get them to go to caucus sites and cast a vote for him. you talk to other supporters. he has a number of congressional supporters. congressman mike wallace jumped on early in the campaign.

he is saying we have the best expectations we can have for tonight. we all want to get this over with quickly. we want to clear the field on the republican side and draw a contrast with president biden and want to get the general election moving as quickly as possible. that is where they are with the trump campaign. he is off going to a campaign site and coming back here. we will likely hear from the former president. back to you. >> thanks so much. we are expecting results very soon. stay with us for our continuing coverage of the iowa caucuses. rsv can severely affect the lungs and lower airways. but i'm protected with arexvy. arexvy is a vaccine used to prevent lower respiratory disease from rsv in people 60 years and older. rsv can be serious for those over 60, including those with asthma, diabetes, copd,

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fox news site in iowa.

>> get out and vote. this is the beginning. right now it is starting. this is the beginning of something important. it's the most important election in the history of our country. take a look at what has happened to our country in the last a short period of time. i think especially with all the bad things in afghanistan, the worst retreat. that was a surrender. taking the military out first. remember, that never would have happened. we were getting out with dignity , respect and taking our equipment. the soldiers come out last, not first. we lost 13 great soldiers. really great. i got to know their families really well. great people. they are devastated. the families are devastated. we left back $85 billion worth of brand-new equipment that i bought because i rebuilt the entire military.

i rebought the equipment that biden gave them. now maybe the hostages but they are still there. the worst and most embarrassing day in the history of our country. we are not going to have any more days like that. it's not going to happen. so i would appreciate your vote. i think i deserve it. we had the greatest country. we were a great nation three years ago and today people are laughing at us. it's not going to happen. i just want to thank everybody. get out and vote. i will see you later. thank you very much. >> all right. former president donald trump delivering a closing argument in clive, iowa, a caucus site. we heard from trump and now let's check in with team desantis. some delusions at the headquarters in des moines. >> you will notice that the room behind us is empty right now. iowans as i speak to you are out caucusing right now to try to

make their choice. ron desantis is currently in the eastern art of the state into butte. he will be speaking and trying to lock in some potential last-minute undecided voters. i caught up with him earlier and he is feeling good and not nervous. he is expecting to surprise folks. he knows the media expectations and the polls have him in third place. he is expecting to lean and on his ground game. he has visited all 99 counties in iowa. he thinks that will be key for him. yesterday donald trump was bashing iowa's governor kim reynolds. he says she was disloyal to him for endorsing desantis over him. i asked desantis about that earlier and he thinks that strategy isn't going over well with ioan voters. take a listen. i think it's a huge mistake. governor reynolds has been a fantastic governor. his attacks on reynolds have been very offputting to a lot of voters. he doesn't have the discipline to not do it because that is just too he is. she has done well for iowa.

i am glad that she has endorsed me. >> i asked desantis to make up prediction for tonight. he told me, quote, "we will have a great night. i said what is a great night? he looked at me and said you will know it when you see it with a big smile on his face. he is speaking now in dubuque as i am speaking to you. back to you. >> thanks so much. he is in dubuque, iowa. let's listen. >> when people are firing arrows at you and the wind wind is in-your-face, are you going to be there and dig in and fight for the people you represent? i've shown that i do that. during covid i had to make the decision that we were not going to let florida descend into some type of grouchy dystopia. we protected people. i took a lot of heat. i took a lot of incoming smears and attacks. i had good supporters and friends of mine that said you need to reverse course.

you are getting killed politically. but a leader has to put interests and freedom and jobs of the people he represents over protecting his own political hide to. that is what i did. we stood for what is right. the state of florida has gotten better as a result. when the times are tough and the chips are down, i will be a president you can count on. i won't back down and i will fight back against the people that are destroying this country. i am proud to be endorsed by the governor of iowa, kim reynolds. she's done a fantastic job for this date. if you like what they have done in iowa, believe me you will love what we do in washington as your next president of the united states. i'm also the candidate that has delivered on 100% of my promises. we made promises in florida and

we fulfilled every one. in fact we over delivered. all the issues republicans have been talking about-- >> that was the current governor of florida trying to finish strong in iowa. now we have vivek ramaswamy speaking live in clive, iowa. let's go to him now. >> it is a passion on our national soul. it makes me stand for the rule of law in the united states of america. i say this as the kid of illegal immigrants to this country. that means your first act of entering this country cannot break the law. that is why we will lose nila terry at the southern border and northern border too. that is the rule of law in the united states of america. we the people created government that is accountable to us, not the other way around. the people who we elect to run the government who actually run the government.

not the shadow of government in the state that is running the show today. you want to shut down the bay state. you want to drain that swamp and not just talk about it, but get it done. here's how we are going to do that. i will fire 75% of all federal bureaucrats starting on day one. that's how you drain the swamp. here's how we are going to do it. government agencies like the fbi, the atf, the central district of california, the u.s. department of education. i'm not giving the fbi a new building. we will get in there. see max inspiring some voters at the last minute. let's check in at the nikki haley campaign headquarters. what is going on over there? >> jesse, good evening. nikki haley just wrapped up her pitch to iowa caucus goers. now i think she is headed here to her headquarters. she has the energy. she has the polling. she has the momentum going into

caucus night. even though she has all of that, her team has been carefully managing expectations for tonight. the campaign says they do feel that she is in a pretty strong spot in all of the three early states. going into tonight haley has the most tv add support, a pretty solid ground game. they went out with the pro haley pack canvassing in freezing temperatures early this weekend and got face-to-face time with caucus goers. even before the caucus begins haley has been messaging that this is now a two person race with the former president. jesse? >> we have a fox news alert. we will make a call. let's bring in martha maccallum and brett baier. what do we have, guys? >> based on the first results in our fox news voter analysis the foxnews decision desk desk and project that former president donald trump will win the iowa caucuses. >> he will take the lion's share

of the 40 delegates. this solidifies his place as the current front runner for the domination. former governor haley and governor desantis fighting for second. this is really going to may be last a wild. it is a close race how we see it on the numbers we are looking at. the former president over performed in the rural parts of iowa. but it has been overwhelming some of these numbers from the precincts that are already starting to come in. we were just talking. it happens quickly. they do it on pieces of paper. they finished it and they hear everybody talk and it's done. >> it is stunning. i was in touch with one at a des moines and they listen to the speeches from all the representatives and then they voted and it was over very quickly. everything we are seeing is that the president in iowa tonight has really swept with all age groups. clearly strong with voters,

voters who have lower levels of education, but strong all across the board. it lines up with what we saw in the polling that we saw in the last few days on issues like a strong leader, good on the economy and all these things seam to be bearing fruit for him in iowa. >> one story is whether the former president can get over 50%. it's possible that he will. >> we weren't expecting to make a call this early in the evening. it seems like do you have any understanding of how overwhelming the victory was? you say it will be over 50%? >> i'm not saying it will. it will be close. if he does that's another story line. he is well ahead of governor desantis and former governor haley and vivek ramaswamy is running a distant fourth. battle for silver medal in iowa is going to be something that takes time tonight. >> we also have a strong turnout.

this was something i had a gut feeling about over the last few days. just watching iowans get up and go about their business. cars on the streets every day and people turning out for thousands for basketball games. a lot of new caucus goers. when they did the town townhall with town donald trump a lot of hands went up for their first time. are you going to be caucusing for president drum. we had a few undecideds, but many of them said they would be. >> where are we with the second place situation? how far of a spread is it going to be from donald trump in first? >> we don't know the points. the battle is very close for second. as we talked about before former governor haley is doing very well in urban areas, college-educated voters. there are independents and democrats who have registered as republicans to vote for her.

there are pockets around the city, suburban voters that she performs really well with. matching how senator rubio performed back in 2016. those same kind of areas. desantis is really getting the conservative voters, but the lions share of those voters went to former president trump. >> he appears to be the second choice for a lot of voters we are seeing out there. we know all along that we have covered this that they have been in the same lane, governor desantis and president drum. we are seeing an overwhelming desire on the part of iowa voters to give the former president another chance. to become president. look at ron desantis who was so strong out of the gate a year ago. so much anticipation that he would be the person. there is a lot of hunger at least in iowa for the former president to get another crack

at it. >> the indictments, the legal stuff, it has only solidified the base here in iowa and the voters that are going for the former president. it has almost energize them to the point where they think it's a political witch on. they say that to pollsters and people going in. overwhelmingly iowa has voted for the former president. >> what we are hearing is them saying they want wholesale change. they want basically an enormous cleanup of government. they are very unhappy with the way thanks are run in washington, d.c. interestingly, 90% think the process is one they can rely on in terms of elections. twentysomethings sink the electoral process is something they have confidence in. that tells us a lot about the iowa voters. >> paper ballots as well. >> imagine that. paper ballots. a big win an early call for the former president. let's bring in bill hemmer.

>> good evening again. it is early. i just want to say it's early. we are calling it for trump but it will be a contest for second place. this is where we stand with less than 1% of the estimated vote throughout all 1700 caucus sites throughout the state. donald trump is just side of 70%. we will keep a close eye on this. does he get to 50%, stay above or drop below that? trump was at 48 on saturday night. we know what his team wants and we know what he wants. he wants to have the headline that says 50 or above. that would be a really good night for him and a very good headline going into new hampshire. what happens with ron desantis and nikki haley is too early to call right now. let me show you the rest of the board. here is vivek ramaswamy. we haven't forgotten about him. about 6% right now. only 38 votes tallied, but its

8:39 here in des moines. standby for more on that. let me take you into some of these counties and pick into what we are seeing based on the leaderboard. polk county is here in des moines. i will take you out to woodberry county. this is along the missouri river, just about 2% of the vote reporting. donald trump 31 vote advantage. a new tool we are using this year. we can see the rob vote lead between number one and number two. you can see that. we can also see the percentage difference. obviously a 54% difference. we are early in the night and we will pointed out throughout the evening and see what kind of handy tool that can provide for us. i will finish up on the west side of the state. this is pottawatomie county. you've got about 8% of the vote and trump is a tick below 70%. desantis 15%, haley 8.5. what is vivek doing?

he is six. maybe the best name of all the counties in the entire state. it all the 99. pottawatomie. no doubt about it. what is this blue? what is going on? this is ron desantis in blue. this is johnson county. about two hours due east of us in des moines. university of iowa. keep an eye on this county. and went with rubio eight years ago. these are the voters that nikki haley was going for. we will see whether or not this holds up. it's 2%. hang onto that. let me see if i can to back this up one time. is it okay? we are all good. this is black hawk county. let me do this for you, jessie. you are my guinea pig. i'm going to go out and come back in.

>> whatever you want. >> let's see if black hawk county appears. do you see that? black hawk county is the university of northern iowa. it's got a decent population. county population of 4% of the entire state. ranks 5 out of 99. that is something to watch throughout the evening. a bit of a sample. just in the time we were talking johnson county went from blue to orange and orange is nikki haley. a race that we will watch throughout the night. >> it is no pottawatomie county, but is up there. not as good as punxsutawney. that's a close call. we will check back with you soon. thank you so much. you mentioned nikki haley. she is speaking live in clive, iowa. >> eighth graders are proficient in reading. only 27% of 8th graders are proficient in math. we can't be okay with that. i'm the daughter of legal immigrants who came here 50

years ago who were completely offended by the lawlessness that is happening on the border. they said it doesn't even look like the united states of america. my mom would always say, if they don't follow the law to come to this country, they won't follow the law when they are in this country. i'm the proud wife of a combat veteran who served in afghanistan. and i know how concerned he is about everything that is happening from the welfare of our veterans to the ideas that we have borders all around us. as the wife of a combat veteran, america's job is always to prevent war, to keep our men and women from ever having to fight. so when you look at all these issues that we have and all

these concerns, i am more than just a presidential candidate. it's about who i am at my core. when i say i am concerned about it. we have to be honest with ourselves. republicans have lost the last 7 out of 8 popular votes for president. that has nothing to be proud of. we should want to win the majority of americans. the only way we win the majority of americans is to reelect a new conservative, new generational leader and leave the negativity and baggage in the past and focus on the solutionse future. scenic let's bring and kayleigh mcenany co-host of outnumbered and a former white house press secretary. we called it very early. usually we have these internal deliberations. we may get a call in the 8:00 or maybe we might call it at 8:45. we called it before 8:30. what does that tell you? >> it took less than 30 minutes. that's how voting should have

been. it also signifies the strength of president donald j. trump. all of these polls, the real clear politics average had him way above 50%. the media has set this bar of 50%. it's interesting. let's be clear. if donald j. trump beats his nearest opponent by more than 12.8%, he makes history as the biggest vote lead margin of any republican candidate to run in the state. does that happen? if it does he makes history. what's interesting is the fox news voter analysis said the top issue for voters, top issue, was immigration. it brought me right back to 2016 when you had donald trump the businessman saying build that wall and make the southern border an issue. he went on to not just be the highest vote-getter of any republican nominee in history but also the president of the united states. really harkening back to where we were in 2016.

>> you are saying if donald trump doubles the last biggest margin which was 12 and beats these people by 24 percentage points, the media will still spend that as a loss if it's not above the 50% threshold? that's pretty crafty. >> no doubt. >> we have the immigration exit poll analysis. also voters overwhelmingly want major change or major of people in the federal government. how do you interpret that? >> they want a changemaker. that is what donald trump went on last time. draining the swamp, building the wall, taking on these issues. you pointed this out at the top of the show. trump is winning among new caucus goers. these are new people who haven't voted before who are showing up and saying i want donald j. trump. that is happening. that's a big deal. one other point i would make. who gets number 2 is important. ron desantis is only 2%. if ron desantis gets in second

place that ensures he goes to new hampshire. it ensures he goes to south carolina which in many ways is something that could happen to nikki haley. if desantis were to exit the race those votes go to trump. not nikki haley. and some ways a second place finish for desantis helps nikki haley. >> on the same day this abc news pole comes out joe biden's approval rating is at 33%. women who have been supportive of the president are now completely dumping him. his base has been completely disintegrated. donald trump is now about to post up a historic victory in an iowa caucus. how do you frame those two things? >> you picked up on a big point. women. 57% of women voted for joe biden in 2020. a vast majority. in the abc poll you reference, 28% approval among women.

i would maintain this is the hardest group for donald trump to win back. he's gaining with latinos and black voters. but that suburban woman is who you have to move. she seems immovable. she is dissatisfied with joe biden. this is where the vp pick for trump assuming he is the nominee is so important. it has to be someone who adds to his boating block. it has to be someone that pushes those suburban women who seem immovable. they can be moved according to the abc poll with the approval of joe biden. 2 he indicated that he had already chosen the vice vice president. maybe he has and maybe he hasn't. you never really know. thank you very much,. >> let's bring in karl rove fox news contributor and former gw bush deputy chief of staff. what is the headline tonight? >> trump wins. we don't know the rest of the headline. we don't know whether its 50% or more. we don't know who is in second

place. think about this. i am looking at the total running on my phone. 1513 votes is what we have got in statewide. that is less than 1% or about 1% of what is statewide. what we are hearing from right now are small meetings, small caucuses where there are literally a handful of votes being reported across the state. we've got a long way to go before we understand whether or not donald trump has beaten 50% and whoever is in second place and what the numbers are. you had the last couple of guests. the margin has dropped from 70% to 56.1% right now. why? another 20 votes came in. we are way before we can begin to see the final shape of this except for one thing and that will be in first place is donald trump. the question is by how much? >> we talked about this false expectation like he has to beat 50%. what if he is at 49?

will the press spend it like he underperformed? that's still a massive record historic victory in the iowa caucus. >> i would say two things. one, he has raised unnecessarily the expectations. i wrote about this several weeks ago in the wall street journal. if you are the front runner you want to lower the expectations, not raise them. the second thing is he could get 49% of the vote. that's the same number nearly that walter mondale got in iowa in 1984 when that was the final number in the pole. 49%. he got 48.9%. the story was the surprise second place winner. the second place winner in the last poll had 3%. gary hartley was tied for fifth and sixth place with alan cranston of california. he becomes the second place winner and kicks off a five month long battle for the

democratic nomination and finally settled on the final day of the primary season on june 5th, 1984 when he took a total of 26 contests, i think it was. on the final day he takes california, new mexico. mondale wins mexico and new jersey. he clinches the democratic nomination with 22 delegates to spare. lots of things happen here. let's let it play out. >> we are letting it play out. the fact that we predicted the winner this early, even from this small amount of caucus sites, you can extrapolate that to a pretty big victory. don't bring up mondale. my parents voted for him. it's a sore subject. >> they are part of the rear part of america that voted for him. >> he carried one state and the district of columbia. >> it's a small group of people. we still love them for it even though we haven't forgiven them.

we talk about desantis and haley combined about $70 million in this state. what are they going to show for it? >> somebody's going to show a second place win and a ticket to go up against donald trump in new hampshire. >> that's a lot of money if you are just 14 or 15 points. is that enough to make the case if this continues to new hampshire, south carolina into february? >> sure. how much money did joe biden spend in the first three contest before he finally won the fourth? i would say yeah. was it a smart play? we will only know after the end of tonight. we won't really know until after new hampshire. iowa gets you a ticket to the further contest. it's how you do in the further contest that determines it. george w. bush came out of iowa a big winner and went on to have a crushing defeat in new

hampshire and then recovered in south carolina. earlier we had rick santorum winning in a surprise here. he went on to lose the nomination to somebody else. it's a start and not the finish. >> the architect and historian. thank you as always. i just want to make the audience aware the numbers you are seeing at the bottom of the screen may seem early to call the race with just 3%, but our projection of a trump win is based on fox news analysis. let's bring in bill hemmer the coanchor of america's newsroom. you are not beating up on karl already? it's too early in the night for that. a quick look right now back on the board. just emphasize karl's point. about 3% of the statewide caucus vote being tallied so far. look over here. this is linn county. cedar rapids is the second largest city in the entire

state. about 7% of the entire population of iowa. let's see what is going on. still 1%. trump a little below 50%. these are mere morsels. 42 rob votes. 24 rob votes. 12 rob votes. vivek is at 11 raw votes. don't go anywhere. this battle for second place will be something else. this number in the end will tell us a lot. >> thank you. let's check in with rich edson at the trump headquarters in des moines. any action there yet? >> usually when you have the iowa caucuses in your favor you hear this big explosion of crowd noise. there is no crowd here. there is a bar with a bartender standing there but nobody added. they called it so early. we called it early. that is something the trump campaign was looking for. they were watching the clock. they know that eight years ago

in 2016 when the iowa caucuses were called for ted cruz it was about two hours later in the evening. as you talk to karl, this all depends on what the final tally is going to be. there is plenty of focus on that. the campaign has been trying to tamp down expectations, trying to do so throughout the day. that's a difficult task. the former president has been saying he's expecting a tremendous result. he's been talking about the polling numbers. he's got polling numbers across the country that is plus 50%. all of this comes out, the former president was just speaking in a caucus site in clive iowa not too far from here. spending an awful lot of time not mentioning his republican rivals but mentioning president joe biden. the supporters want this to end as quickly as they can to get onto the general. >> tell me who you see first at the bar xi need a name.

>> you've got it. >> let's bring in chief political analyst brit hume. you have seen a few of these. what is your gut reaction? >> i was on that mondale campaign for nine months in 1984. i remember it well. >> god bless you. for this race based on what we know that trump wins by a large margin. maybe the largest ever. it shows the enduring appeal he has in the republican party. the pole that we call our voter analysis had a lot of information about the number of people and how many of them want a complete upheaval. trump is the man they would like to have bring that about. i would suggest something else that is worth thinking about. a lot of the strength of his appeal was based on people's memories of how it was free covid while he was president. they remember the economy and how it boomed. they remember the fact we weren't indoors are indirectly funding wars overseas that they knew about.

they liked the conditions. they found them agreeable. huge numbers. they haven't forgotten that. president biden points us continually to the fact that the job growth has been great lately and it has. the economy has certainly grown. but the extent of the inflation that predominated for so long under him, under biden, has soured people's thinking and doesn't look like it will recover. trump looks like the guy that brought the goods home to them and they haven't forgotten that. life was much better for a great many millions of americans. that is reflected in the size of his win tonight in iowa. >> illegal immigration still seems to be front and center. that is the top issue even ahead of the economy. >> it is very big. it gets bigger all the time because the biden administration refuses to take the kind of action that worked in the past that donald trump is remembered for taking.

he threw out everything that donald trump had done on immigration when he first took office on almost the first day. people remember that as well. let us not discount when we look at the reasons for this. it was trump's record pre-covid. >> this is not over because desantis is well-funded. nikki haley is well-funded. they will punch tickets and move on. what happens if it is haley with an upset over desantis? what does that do? >> there has been talk about her and she is stronger into new hampshire. going into tonight she was stronger in new hampshire. desantis did not make much of an effort or impact up there. this would enhance that if that all came about. it remains to be seen if it will. desantis had a really good organization and so did trump. desantis did too. in bad weather that might help

him against haley who has not been thought to have much organization. >> if desantis get second, will he skip new hampshire like he says and go directly to south carolina? >> south carolina will be his first stop after this. i think his plan is to move on to new hampshire. he has a lot going there. but he's going to go there if he survives this. >> jesse watters primetime will be in new hampshire. is brit hume going to be in new hampshire as well? >> i will be there. i have a few things i need to talk to you about. >> talk to johnny. we will schedule a meeting and i will be on my best behavior. brit hume, you have to respond to karl rove. he is saying it is early and these numbers are minuscule. trump's numbers could fall off a cliff. if this is still as you said shaping up to be the largest

ever republican caucus victory in iowa of all time, how do you make sense of that? >> i think all karl was saying it is not clear that he can clear the 50% margin which would be unprecedented for him. that is something we are watching. when a guy wins this big we are talking about small stuff whether he is over 50 or not. that's not going to matter much. >> you agree with waters. when we are in new hampshire we can rub that in rove's face. >> i am sure you will try. don't try too much. >> i will see what i can pull off in new hampshire. thank you so much. as you heard it, early call and big win for the former president in iowa. could be a record. a race for second underway. stay with fox news. welcome to "hannity"